According to forecasters from the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (ICMH), temperatures in the North Atlantic will remain abnormally high between November 2023 and January 2024. These conditions, caused by global warming, are conducive to cyclonic activity unusual.
November 30 marks the end of the hurricane season in the Caribbean. But in 2023, the effects of intense heat and record temperatures, between 1 and 2°C recorded in the atmosphere and in the sea since June, will increase the probabilities of cyclonic formations until the end of the month. from December 2023.
“Episodes of thermal stress could persist with high temperatures, humidity and heat waves”, underlines the CIMH
At the beginning of the year, scientists from the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), a branch of CARICOM, the Caribbean Community, based in Barbados, had already announced the severe heat waves in our region in July, August and September.
Martinique, the Bahamas, Barbados, Grenada, Saint Martin, Saint Thomas, Trinidad and Tobago, Dominica, Guyana and Saint Kitts and Nevis recorded record temperatures.
Today, the CIMH announces further disruptions to the usual rhythm of the seasons in the region.
In addition to intense heat, the probability of intense rain is real. The risk of flooding and landslides remains high until the end of the year.
Humidity levels will be higher, leading to heavy rains and the formation of cyclones.
The presence of El Nino will be felt by extreme weather phenomena which will alternate between torrential rains and periods of drought.
During the months of July, August and September 2023, CIMH scientists even noted a lack of rain. Several territories recorded a rainfall deficit, between 15 and 70% compared to the average.
Between February and April 2024, the most pleasant period in the Caribbean is already set to be warmer than usual.
The hot season could well start earlier than expected from April 2024.
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