Like every year, the various meteorological centers update their forecasts of cyclone activity for the current season. Last week, the information was thus updated.
“At the start of August, the various elements of analysis available to us tend to converge towards the possibility of a 2021 hurricane season that is slightly more active than normal”, summarizes Météo France.
Regarding the Southern Oscillation El Niño (Enso), a neutral phase is favored with the probability of a new La Niña event around the September-October-November quarter. "In general, neutral ENSO conditions are associated with a poor ability to predict cyclonic activity, while a La Niña phase is often accompanied by a more active season than normal", underlines Météo France.
As for the temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean, they are slightly higher than normal over the heart of the hurricane season, which may promote a more active season than normal.
Finally, “by averaging the forecasts available from the various centers for the hurricane season, we would expect a total number of named hurricanes between 14 and 20, including 6 to 9 hurricanes, 2 to 5 of them possibly being major. This is slightly above the normal news, calculated over the period 1991-2020, and close to the averages of the last 10 and 20 years, "reports Météo France, which retains" as the most likely scenario a 2021 season that is slightly more active than the normal ”.
(photo credit: NHC. soualigapost.com)
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