The American atmospheric study organizations all agree on the fact that the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on June 1, will be intense with around 20 phenomena forecast, including 8 to 10 hurricanes, including 4 to 5 major ones. .
Just over a month before the official start of the hurricane season in the North Atlantic (from June to November), the forecasts of the various American reference organizations in the study of the climate have been updated. Their projections are clear: the conditions for 2022 are looking very similar to those of 2021, but not as exceptional as those of 2020.
The Climate Adaptation Center and The Weather Company predict an average of 20 to 22 hurricane phenomena, including 8 to 10 hurricanes, including 4 to 5 major ones. Accuweather and Colorado State University expect just under 20 events (16 to 20), a lower number than other agencies but still significantly above the average for the past 30 years.
In recent years, in addition to an increase in the number of hurricane phenomena, we have observed a lengthening of the hurricane season: while it is supposed to start in June, phenomena began to form in May every years since 2015.
Two climatic parameters explain these alarmist forecasts for the 2022 season: the very high water temperature of the Gulf of Mexico, the main fuel for the formation of hurricanes, and the persistence of the La Niña phenomenon. In some areas of this gulf, the water temperature is currently 4°C above seasonal averages: it locally reaches 27°C, a temperature that could already allow the formation of hurricanes, in the middle of the month of april !
Another parameter to take into account is the climatic phenomena El Niño and La Niña which occur in phases of one to two years. These phenomena are characterized by a temperature anomaly in part of the waters of the Pacific Ocean: La Niña occurs when the water is colder than average, conversely we speak of El Niño when the water is warmer than average. The consequences of an El Niño or La Niña year are strongly felt on the climate of many countries, and on the cyclonic phenomena in the Atlantic which are more numerous with La Niña.
Surface waters in the Caribbean are currently warmer than the usual average. The latest projections estimate that La Niña should persist throughout the summer, before weakening in the fall.
At this point, all data and analyzes of climate factors converge towards the scenario of a 2022 hurricane season (again) more active than normal. Wait and see! _AF
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