According to the Colorado State University weather forecast, the forecast for April predicts an active but average cyclone season.
The ENRI (La Niña - El Niño) forecast models of the IRI for April largely lean for the cyclone period 2016, in favor of a La Niña episode at 43% against Neutral Conditions at 44%. We will therefore have to wait a little longer to confirm with more precision if the cyclone season will remain active but in the average of recent years with a probability of impact close to the average for the Caribbean area. However, it should be noted that this season should however be more active than last season.
Remember that an inactive or average cyclone season does not mean that it will have no impact on our islands. You must remain vigilant at all times.
The first TSR forecasts were released on April 5, 2016 and are as follows: (In brackets the normal for the last 64 years)
• ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy): 80 (101)
• Named storms: 12 (11)
• Hurricanes: 6 (6)
• Major hurricanes: 2 (3)
The next CSU forecasts are expected for Wednesday, June 1, 2016 (then during the season on July 1 and August 3) and that of the TSR will be released around May 27, 2016. _AF
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