We communicate to you below the translation of the bulletin of the National Hurricane Center NHC this Friday, September 8 at 5:00 a.m. in Saint-Martin.
Translation of the NHC bulletin September 8 at 5 a.m.
Satellite images indicate that Lee has a symmetrical inner core with a clear, circular 18 km eye, and that there is no indication of concentric eyewalls. Although the hurricane is incredibly powerful, its wind field is not particularly extensive. Tropical storm-force winds extend out to about 180 km from the center (Editor's note: Lee will pass 400 km from St. Maarten).
US Air Force cyclone hunters returned to Lee early this morning and found the pressure had dropped to about 926 mb. In addition, the maximum wind at flight level 700 mb (3 km altitude) is reported at 153 kt and the maximum surface wind (SFMR) was 158 kt, but this estimate could be higher than reality.
Air Force hurricane hunters will continue the study of Lee in a few hours by sending another plane there (Faxinfo will keep you posted).
Lee is expected to remain in favorable atmospheric conditions while moving over even warmer waters over the next two days. It is likely that the hurricane will at least maintain its intensity or become somewhat more powerful over the coming period.
The main factor that will determine Lee's short-term intensity will be internal dynamics, such as eyewall replacement cycles.
As often, these conditions will cause fluctuations in the strength of the hurricane, which are difficult to predict. There will likely be some weakening beyond a few days as Lee passes over somewhat cooler, higher shear waters.
This major hurricane has tracked west-northwest over the past two days as the south side flow of a subtropical ridge over the mid-Atlantic.
The west-northwestward movement is expected to continue, but at a progressively slower rate over the forecast period as the ridge to the north of the system weakens.
Mathematical forecast models are in fairly good agreement with the trajectory, and few changes have been made to the previous NHC forecast.
Lee is expected to gain in size and become more symmetrical over the weekend and early next week as the hurricane slows.
Elevation data showed significant wave heights between 13 and 15 feet near the center of the hurricane.
Dangerously high seas are expected near the center of the hurricane, and strong swells are expected to propagate away from the system throughout the forecast period.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Lee is a dangerous Category 5 hurricane and it is possible that it will strengthen further.
The center of Lee is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands (including St. Maarten), the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week.
2. Dangerous waves and life-threatening rip currents are likely in the north of the Leeward Islands from the end of this day.
These conditions will expand west and north affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos, Bahamas and Bermuda over the weekend.
3. It is far too early to know what level of impact, if any, Lee will cause along the US East Coast, Atlantic Canada or Bermuda late next week, d especially since the hurricane is expected to significantly slow its course in the Southwest Atlantic. Either way, dangerous waves and rip currents are expected along much of the US East Coast starting Sunday.
Keep following for updates on predictions on Lee over the next few days on www.faxinfo.fr (share this link).
FORECAST MAXIMUM POSITIONS AND WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 17.8N 53.5W 145 KT 165 MPH 270 KM / H
12H 08/1800Z 18.6N 55.1W 155KT 180MPH 290 KM / H
24H 09/0600Z 19.6N 57.1W 150KT 175MPH 280 KM / H
36H 09/1800Z 20.5N 58.8W 145KT 165MPH 270 KM / H
48H 10/0600Z 21.2N 60.2W 145KT 165MPH 270 KM / H
60H 10/1800Z 21.9N 61.5W 140KT 160MPH 260 KM / H
72H 11/0600Z 22.4N 62.7W 135KT 155MPH 250 KM / H
96H 12/0600Z 23.3N 65.1W 130KT 150MPH 240 KM / H
120H 13/0600Z 24.4N 67.1W 120KT 140MPH 220 KM / H
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