The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is scheduled to be active by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). After a record series in 2020, ocean warming is expected to help maintain a high level of cyclone activity this year. If the season officially begins on June 1, the first phenomenon baptized - the subtropical storm Ana - was formed on May 22.
Contrary to what we have read here and there, the official hurricane season has not been brought forward from June 1 to May 15 in the Atlantic. Only the alerts were anticipated in mid-May to respond to a reality: the named phenomena are forming earlier and earlier in the year. (since 2015, this is the 7th consecutive year that a storm has formed before May 15th). In the North Atlantic, the first - the subtropical storm Ana - thus developed on May 22, northeast of Bermuda.
Record season - with 30 phenomena having received a name including 14 hurricanes, including 7 major cyclones - the year 2020 saw the Greek alphabet used for the last time, in addition to the 21 names retained in the list of baptized cyclonic phenomena. Because alpha and omega would not be taken seriously enough by the public, the World Meteorological Organization decided this spring to give it up in favor of a complementary nominal list. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), it is likely to be used this summer or more likely this fall, the official season lasting until November 30.
3 to 5 major hurricanes?
Like last year when NOAA rightly predicted exceptional activity, its forecasts state that there is a 60% chance that the year 2021 will be more active than normal. Said climatological normal - updated this spring for the period 1991-2020 - retains an annual average of 14 named phenomena, including 7 hurricanes including 3 major ones, over the North Atlantic.
However, with a confidence index of 70%, the NOAA forecasts for this cyclonic season 2021 a range of 13 to 20 named phenomena, of which 6 to 10 would become hurricanes, among which 3 to 5 major (of category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). Time will tell if the 2020 record will be broken with the understanding that it is now established that while there aren't necessarily more hurricanes, there are more super cyclones, occurring earlier and later in the season. while the ocean is warmer on average.
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