In its monitoring and forecast bulletin for the stranding of pelagic sargassum for the Northern Islands communicated on January 4, 2024, Météo France classifies the risk level as low for the territories of Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy.
For the Antilles-Guyana zone, analyzes of images from December 27, 2023 to January 3, 2024 reveal very few detections off the coast of the Antilles arc. A few filaments are pinned to the north and east of Tobago in an easterly flow against no detection off Guyana. Near Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy, same observation. The latest images show rare, very isolated rafts in a northeasterly flow near the two islands. A few rare arrivals are possible on coasts exposed to the flow, but the risk remains very low. Level of trend in groundings, the threat over the next fortnight is limited: detections around Tobago are caught in a dominant eastern sector flow. Most of it is expected to evacuate into the Caribbean Sea, remaining south of Saint Lucia. But it remains possible that a few isolated rafts or filaments could reach our islands via the Antilles Current. Concerning the next two months, Météo France is currently forecasting a closed season. Numerous sargassum rafts are detected to the east of the West Indian arc, approximately 1000km away. They should concern us in a little over two months. Let's remember that from a climatological point of view, February is the start of the season. For the moment, the occurrence of rafts and the currents do not seem favorable to this resumption of notable arrivals in the French West Indies, but vigilance remains essential. In view of the circulation of “equatorial” sargassum, Guyana should not be subject to a significant risk, even if more or less isolated algae are sometimes detected leaving the Amazon. Contributions from Africa are still very far away. So here’s a little respite for our beaches. _VX
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