“The seasonal forecast models do not establish a preferred scenario for rain for the coming quarter. But they all agree to keep temperatures higher than usual, like in recent months ”. These are Météo France forecasts for the months of September, October and November in the West Indies.
Global climate context
The oceanic behavior confirms the progression of a cooler than usual band in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It corresponds to the gradual establishment of a La Niña phase. This should not become too marked for the end of the year.
The Atlantic Ocean still shows warmer surface waters at the level of the Tropic of Cancer and cold anomalies in the north, towards Greenland and Iceland.
In the atmosphere, the Antilles-Guyana do not seem directly disturbed by atmospheric anomalies but the La Niña phase is generally synonymous with an increase in the rainfall regime.
Forecasts for the French Antilles
The deficit trend seems to be easing for the last few months of the rainy season. The rainfall may even be a little excess in September due to a fairly active circulation of tropical waves or cyclones. Then it will approach or fall below normal, especially towards the Guadeloupe archipelago, over the following months. The thermometer will continue to display maximum temperatures that are warmer than usual during the day, especially in Martinique. While nightly lows should remain high, although more consistent towards the north of the West Indian arc.
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