Colorado State University (CSU) Hurricane Forecasting Service researchers released the first forecast for the 2021 hurricane season last week.
Colorado State University researchers predict an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2021, citing the likely absence of El Niño as the main factor.
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team predicts 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.
So far, the 2021 hurricane season has similar characteristics to those of 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011 and 2017 according to CSU researchers. “All of our analog seasons had above average cyclone activity in the Atlantic with 1996 and 2017 being extremely active seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, researcher in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences and lead author of the report.
The report also includes the probability that 58% of major hurricanes make landfall in the Caribbean, compared to the last century average of 42%.
The April 2021 forecast estimates that there will be 17 named storms, 80 named storm days, 8 hurricanes, 35 hurricane days, 4 major hurricanes, 9 major hurricane days.
The CSU team of researchers will release forecast updates on June 3, July 8 and August 5.
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