Saint-Martin, long marked by a demographic decline, is beginning to stabilize. As of January 1, 2022, the island has 31496 inhabitants, compared to 35746 in 2016, marking a decrease of 12% in six years. However, the year 2021 marks a turning point, with a slight recovery of +0,1% over one year.
According to the Territorial Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (ITSEE), which revealed the new figure for the Saint-Martin population last Wednesday, this decline is mainly explained by a negative migratory balance: since 2015, the number of departures from the territory has exceeded the number of arrivals. In 2021, 1145 departures were recorded compared to only 886 arrivals, creating a migratory balance of -249. This trend, accumulated over six years, reflects a real exodus, particularly of young workers and families. More than 36% of residents have left the island since 2016. At the same time, the natural balance (difference between births and deaths) remains positive, but is decreasing. Between 2015 and 2021, births fell from 654 to 493 (-24%), while the average number of deaths remains stable (158 per year).
The age structure illustrates an aging population. Between 2015 and 2021, the share of 0-24 year-olds and 25-54 year-olds decreased, while that of 55 and over increased by 20%. This phenomenon, similar to that observed in Guadeloupe and Martinique, reflects a worrying demographic dynamic.
Housing
The impact on housing is significant. In 2021, Saint-Martin had 17001 homes, down 1% over one year and 4% over six years. Primary residences (12) decreased by 729% over the same period, while vacant homes are increasing (7 in 2512). In Marigot, once lively, the vacant stock is expanding, a consequence of low attractiveness due to insecurity, a lack of activities and legal constraints for owners. Efforts must therefore focus on revitalizing the city center to break the pattern.
Finally, the evolution of the level of qualification reflects a social change. The younger generations are more qualified (11% at higher level), while 62% of those aged 55 and over remain without a qualification. Despite an improvement in certain sectors such as construction, other key activities such as hotels and restaurants have shown a decline of -10% since 2014, accentuating the economic difficulties.
In the face of these challenges, recent stabilization offers an opportunity. Implementing a proactive policy in favor of housing, economic attractiveness, and retaining young residents will be crucial to the demographic and economic future of Saint-Martin. Partial annual censuses survey 8% of housing units each year, following a 5-year cycle to establish the total population. _Vx
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